2012 Final Four Preview

I didn't write a March Madness preview this year (which seems to have been a mistake as last year's edition received several hits) but I've decided to write a brief preview of the Final Four today. All four teams are great teams and I look for three very exciting games.

Kentucky vs. Louisville:

• How will New Orleans be able to contain the enormous egos of Calipari and Pitino? These guys are the epitome of great coaches who are conceited, egotistical, and in my opinion, slimy. Pitino is the better coach, Calipari has the better team.
• In state rivalries don't occur to often in the final four, and these two teams share a special contempt for one another. Look for a lot of jaw jacking, pushing and posturing, and at least one of the coaches if not both will go berserk and get tee'd up.
• Louisville has the superior defense, Kentucky has the best offense. Classic style matchup. Kentucky is better, and in my opinion much better. Louisville has to find a way to slow the game down, and win from the perimeter. They have to shoot at least 50% from the arc, and take at least 30 attempts from deep to win. For Kentucky, as long as they can run, they will win.
• I'll take Kentucky by 6, 76-70.

Ohio State vs. Kansas

• In the interest of  full disclosure, in my bracket picks I had both of these teams in this spot, and I have Kansas winning it all. It hurt me to make that pick considering they were in the same bracket as my beloved Tar Heels, but I think they have the ability.
• This game features the best player matchup of the tournament with Jared Sullinger going against Thomas Robinson. Both are fierce down low, Sullinger is more polished, Robinson is more athletic. Neither one will be the reason there team wins.
• For Ohio State to win, they will have to shoot the lights out, and I'm always nervous when a team has to shoot well on the biggest stage to win. Kansas will be much more aggressive,  will get to the hoop better and consequently win.
• I think this one will be a very close game, and in close games I tend to favor the better coach. Thad Matta is not a bad coach, but Bill Self is better. I'll take Kansas 82-80, in overtime.

National Championship; Kentucky vs. Kansas

•  Kentucky is the most talented team in the entire NCAA and they have the ability to go on spurts that no other team is capable of. In the second round against Iowa State, it was a great game and ISU was keeping it close. I left the room for what seemed like just a couple of minutes, came back and Kentucky was up 10. That's a hard beast to tame.
• This Kansas team isn't nearly as talented as Kentucky, this isn't even the best Kansas team in the last couple of years. I love their balance though. Robinson is a force, but they also have some great perimeter guys that can take over as well.
• Experience is where the Kentucky freshman can be exposed. I think experience can often be overrated, but in this case I think it will be a huge factor. The Kentucky kids have shown a lot of poise, but maybe as many as four of them are out the door to the NBA. How do they handle knowing their last college game is for a National Championship. It didn't work for the Fab Five, and this team isn't as good as those guys. I love Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as a player but I thought it was a huge red flag that reports came out last week that he was probably going pro. Do a bunch of 18 year old kids, who have largely rolled through the tournament have what it take to harness their talent, and get their focus to win. I don't think they do.
• It will be another extremely close game, and please see above for my thoughts on close games. Calipalri is the best recruiter in the nation, but I question his coaching ability. The last two times these two coaches met in the title game, Calipalri's team largely dominated the entire game, but couldn't close out because of poor free throw shooting, poorer defense and quite frankly, a little panic. When you spend all year dominating, you expect to dominate, and then you don't, who steps up to right the ship? I think Calipalri panics again and can't calm the pups down. I'll take Kansas to win 73-68.

Passing it on

One of the primary reasons I started this blog was because as I got older I was becoming a little jaded with the workings of professional sports. I was tired of hearing all about the scandals, and the greed, and the laziness. It was getting harder and harder for me to remember the joy I had for sports growing up, the unadulterated love and excitement. Jim Valvano running around a basketball court looking for someone to hug, Kirk Gibson rounding second base pumping his fist on a bum leg, and Michael Jordan cradling the NBA championship crying like a baby. I was having a hard time find those same moments in today's sports culture.

This was particularly upsetting because my kids are getting older and my son in particular is starting to get into sports. I've been successful in making sure he loves the Steelers and Hawkeyes. He knows who the Minnesota Twins and Timberwolves are, and takes the occasional interest in watching a few minutes of any game whenever I'm watching. So, as his interest peaked, and he turned five, I decided it was time to take in a live sporting event.

Yesterday we headed to the Target Center to check out the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the Denver Nuggets. I bought fairly good seats, but nothing outrageous that if he decided he wanted to leave at halftime it would still be worth it. We got to the game plenty early and Gabe showed a real interest and was a asking about a lot of the players as they warmed up. "Who's that", "Why is that guy doing that", "Which one is the Denver Nugget"? It helps that most NBA arenas, the Target Center included, pump a lot of hip-hop and up tempo music and dancing into the pregame. He started to get a little restless right before tip off, but I assured him he would enjoy the starting lineups. Crunch the mascot, and the Timberwolves dancers came out (which really grabbed Gabe's attention) and the lights went off. As soon as the spotlight came on, and 'Enter Sandman' started up, Gabe was hooked. He loved the introductions and stayed completely engaged throughout the game. Despite some shot clock problems in the first quarter which I thought was going to doom us, he loved every minute of it. He cheered at all the right times, got up and danced, and watched the entire game. Despite a huge blowout win by the Wolves and me wanting to leave midway through the 4th quarter, Gabe wanted to stay the whole game, and we did. These were his favorite things:

• The aforementioned cheerleaders. He kept a very close eye on them, and when they disappeared after half to go schmooze with the high rollers, he became genuinely concerned. When they reappeared between the 3rd and the 4th, he was relieved and make sure they didn't wander off again.
• Chris Andersen, "Birdman", from the Denver Nuggets really appealed to Gabe. Shortly after he entered the game he got fouled and they showed him on the big screen. With all of his tattoos, crazy hair, and wild beard I think Gabe thought he was a superhero. He only played five minutes, and Gabe asked every two minutes, "Where's Birdman?"
• Gabe was very concerned that when we bought his Kevin Love bobblehead doll, he would get a Denver Nugget one. He DID NOT want any Denver Nuggets stuff. This wildly amused the people behind us in line.

It was great experience, and let me understand where my joy from sports should be coming. Seeing the world of the NBA through the eyes of a five year old, was great, and it absolutely makes me look forward to sharing the experience with him, and his sister. As we were leaving, he even wanted to know when we were going to a football game. That will be a harder challenge when our choices are the Vikings and the Gophers. We are going to have to wait until the Steelers come to town, or travel to Kinnick to fulfill that request I think.


A few basketball related items from the game...

• Kevin Love has mastered the "thinking man's game" i.e. slow, white, and can't jump. He's not even close to his listed 6'10", I would say he's 6'8" if he's lucky. Because of his outside shot now he's really good at throwing a pump fake, getting a guy in the air and either getting fouled or just going around him. Also, there is no doubt he's a great rebounder, but yesterday in particular he got at least 6 rebounds that his teammates just let him have. A guy would have better position or a better angle and would back off if they saw Love there.
• Kenneth Faried for the Denver Nuggets is a freak. He had 17 points and never took a shot farther than 3 feet from the basket. He had at least five baskets when he got the rebound, threw the outlet pass, and then just beat everyone down court and got a dunk. At one point I thought Rick Adelman was  going to put in Brad Miller just to knock him out.

• The Timberwolves can't survive if they make the playoffs on jump shots. They have nobody that gets to the rim on a consistent basis, or effectively. I know they have some injuries right now, but they can't rely on that many jump shots if they are to make the playoffs. Wes Johnson, Martell Webster, Derrick Williams, Anthony Tolliver, every single one of those guys are long and athletic for their position and every single one of them relies on jumpers. The only other team that shoots that many jumpers is the OKC Thunder, except they shoot them with guys named Durant and Westbrook. BIG difference.

Overall I had a blast, I loved going to the game, and loved even more that Gabe had such a good time. There are only a handful of games left this season, but I see a future of a few Timberwolves games next year, and I can't wait.

Over

The first ever blog retraction-Ricky Rubio edition

This is a first for the Short Hops blog, the "I made a mistake post". Back in June I posted this article; Ricky Rubio-Savior? outlining, in detail all of the reasons I thought Ricky Rubio would be a bust. 8 months later I'm not ready to anoint him as the second coming of Magic, or even John Stockton, but those guys are Hall-of-Famers. Right now, Rubio has been very, very good, and even though the Linsanity, Jeremy Lin has taken his point guard spotlight, Rubio has been the best point guard rookie of the season. That includes, #1 pick Kyrie Irving, who is scoring more, but not playing better.

In my article I asserted that Rubio isn't that great of a shooter and ultimately teams would just play way off him and force him to try and score. Even though teams SHOULD be doing that, because he's an abysmal shooter (38% from the 2 point range, 32% from 3) so far they have not been able to. The thing that has impressed me the most about Rubio so far is his change of pace ability to be able to sneak into the lane, and at the very least draw fouls. More than anything though, he has absolutely energized his teammates, the fans, and the franchise. I'm taking my son to a game in March, and I'm honestly looking forward to seeing Rubio more than any other player.

I will still reserve judgement on his top 5 pick status, as 31 games is still an extremely small sample size, but right now he's looking pretty darn good. And if you really want to see how fun a player he can be, check out the Rookie/Sophmore game this weekend during All-Star weekend. Normally those games are terrible, but when you get an up-tempo game, with a point guard that sees everything, you are going to see two things; some incredible passes, and at least one guy get hit in the head with one of those incredible passes because he's not used to playing with a pass first point guard. So, to you Ricky, I'm very sorry I thought you would suck, I was wrong. Now work on your shooting....please.