First off let me admit that I was wrong about the Miami Heat. I did not believe they would be in the NBA finals and they have clearly proven me wrong. They have found a way to absolutely control the ends of ball games, and they have dominated when they need to. I still can't stand their need to pose, and strut, and flaunt after every big play, but I don't know that is necessarily an indictment on them uniquely, but more the modern athlete, especially in the NBA. Okay, apologies out of the way, here are the things I think need to be watched in these finals. Heat vs. Mavericks, starts Tuesday night.
- Dwayne Wade's injury(ies): D-Wade is clearly banged up, but wisely no one is letting on to how badly. His health will be the major factor in this series for the Heat. They are going need him to be either the #1, or #1A option in every single game, and they have a huge advantage at the shooting guard position against the Mavs. If his shoulder is really messed up and it affects his shooting I honestly don't think he'll be able to adjust and get to the rim more, and he can't dominate games outside of scoring like LeBron can.
- Can LeBron take the step to the next level. Scottie Pippen comments aside (we'll get to that later, and in-depth) LeBron really has been unbelievable in these playoffs. What has impressed me most is his defense. He absolutely physically intimidated and outplayed Derrick Rose in the last four games of that series, and honestly I didn't think that was an effort he had in him. He's not going to have to work nearly that hard on defense in the Finals, so will we see him be even more dominant on offense? 40 point, 50 point games? They are certainly possible.
- Who will guard my favorite player, Dirk Nowitzki? Udonis Haslem messed with Dirk in the 2006 finals, and he's back from injury and has sparked the Heat. This is a different Dirk though, he's got a different attitude now. He's got a F.U. mode he didn't have a couple of years ago. Haslem can't play more than probably 32-35 minutes a game, and Dirk will play 40+, so for 10+ minutes a game, somebody else is going to have step up. I expect Dirk to average 30/10 for the finals.
- Can Jason Kidd continue play like he's 25? To me, J-Kidd is the single biggest factor in the entire finals for both teams. If he can score 10+ points, dish 10+ assists, and pull down 5 rebounds a game, all while holding whoever he guards in relative check, the Mavs win this series easy. In the previous two series he's done a good job guarding both Kobe Bryant, and Russell Westbrook/James Harden/other Thunder guards. I think the Heat are going after him in this series though. He's going to match up against Mario Chalmers or Mike Miller when they are in the game, and really, both of those guys should be easy covers for Kidd. If he can save energy on defense, the Heat are in big trouble.
- The Mavs have a superior bench to the Heat, and it's not even close. J.J. Barrea, Jason Terry, Haywood, these are all guys who have played tremendous in the playoffs. I fully expect the Mavs' bench to win at least one game in the series, maybe two. If they can actually swing two games in their favor, the Heat don't stand a chance.
- The Heat will win the series if they can out rebound, and cover the perimeter at the same time against the Mavs. The Mavs shooters are playing with so much confidence right now and Miami is going to have to show aggressively on the perimeter, which will leave the lanes pretty open for Dallas to crash the boards. I think if the Heat stay within 7 rebounds every game of the Mavs, they'll win the series.
- The Mavs will win the series if they dictate the pace, and don't rely on those aforementioned shooters. The Mavs don't have a lot of guys outside of J.J. Barrea who are going to break down a defense and get to the rim, but in this series they have to do more of that for two reasons. Number one, the Heat's bigs are awful, especially on the bench. The Mavs are great free throw shooting team, so if they are attacking the basket and getting to the line that's free points every time. Continually attacking the rim, will open up those shooting lanes just that much more. Dallas can play up tempo or half court, and they can win the Finals doing either one, but they have to be the ones to decide how the game will be played. They can't try and match Miami, they have to dictate to Miami.
- I predict the Mavs will avenge 2006, and beat the Heat in seven games.
These are just a very few of my thoughts on what I think are the biggest story lines going into the next regular season.
- The coaching carousel: All pro sports drive me up a damn wall with how they recycle coaches, even coaches who suck, over and over. The NBA by far is the absolute worst offender though. I've already covered in a previous post my thoughts on Mike Brown being hired as the Lakers head coach, and now the Houston Rockets have hired Kevin McHale. The Rockets are in my opinion one of the few teams that generally make very good personnel moves, but this one is idiotic. When McHale was the T-Wolves coach, he DIDN'T EVEN WANT TO BE THE COACH! He moved to the bench because he had screwed up the team so bad as general manager, he felt obligated to become the coach. He had a decent amount of success in a very short amount of time, but I guarantee he will fail miserably in Houston. That team has no proven floor leader or strong personalities to help keep a locker room in check, and McHale sure as hell can't do it. I believe he would make an outstanding assistant coach because he can teach fundamentals well, but he cannot run a team. Why can't guys like Brian Shaw, Mark Jackson, or Patrick Ewing get a chance? Mark Jackson in particular confounds me why he can't get a job. The guy is on the record for wanting to be a coach, he knows the game, and he understands players. There will be at least two more coaches probably lose their jobs between now and the beginning of the season, and look for two more retread coaches get jobs.
- The Lockout next year is almost a stone cold, lead pipe lock. I look for it to be very similar to '98, and for at least half the season to be lost. It's a shame, because this past year has been probably one of the best regular seasons in a long time. If a lockout happens though, it will severely hurt the NBA. The NFL can sustain a lockout because they the nation is crazed for the sport, and because fans only get to see their hometown team in person 8-9 times a year, on the weekend. The NBA has 41 homes games, most during the week, and ticket prices are outrageous. Fans won't come back to watch half a season, it will kill teams like Memphis who had built so much momentum this year. From a player perspective, think of what it does for guys like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Tim Duncan. Some will argue that it helps those guys because they won't have the grind of a full season, but those guys at their advanced age need to get into rhythm, and they won't be able to establish that in 50 games.
- If the OKC Thunder can get the Russell Westbrook puzzle figured out, they will be the team to beat next year, hands down. They are still so young, at every single position, and now they have two years of solid playoff experience under their belt. The thing with Westbrook is, he's a tremendous talent, but I'm not sure he's every really been coached on what the team needs from him. I don't think he's a true point guard, but I do think he would be willing to average 16 points a game, instead of 23 if that was clearly stated to him.
- The Bulls were really, really close this year...but I think it might be a closing window already. Derrick Rose couldn't do it all in the playoffs, and he made some mistakes against the Heat, but I look for him to be even better next year. Having said that, they've got some areas of concern, mostly power forward and shooting guard. I was a huge fan of the Carlos Boozer signing at the time, but he certainly proved unreliable this year, and injury prone. At shooting guard, the pieces they have are okay, but they need a proven second scorer to be able to lead the team in scoring 20-25 games a year. I'm not sure what the plan is for them in the off season, but I have a feeling they'll try and flip a guy like Luol Deng for a bigger name scorer. It's a risky move, because that team is built largely on defense and chemistry, and you don't want to mess with that.
- Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, will not be on their respective teams to start the 2012-2013 season, and I think at least one of them moves in season next year. The Hornets, despite pushing the Lakers in the playoffs are a sinking ship, and Paul absolutely wants out whether he says it publicly or not. Howard needs to look inward at what is causing some of his teams' problems, but I don't think he can win a championship in Orlando. I predict Paul becomes a Knick, and Howard, following Wilt, Kareem, and Shaq, becomes a Laker.
On Friday, my man, one of my all-time favorites, Scottie Pippen said in an interview that LeBron James may be better than Michael Jordan. I will say, I think Pippen misspoke, actually using the wrong words for what he wanted to convey. The fact the matter is, skill wise, in terms of actual physical skills, LeBron James SHOULD be better than Michael Jordan. Michael was 6'6", LeBron is 6'8". Michael, at his heaviest clocked in about 215, some reports say LeBron weighs close to 275, but he's 260 no doubt. Baseline to baseline, LeBron is absolutely faster than Michael. Strength advantage = LeBron, passing = LeBron; rebounding = LeBron. So, if Scottie was trying to say that LeBron could be better because of his physical gifts, then I can't really fault him for that. However, that's not how the statement came across, he just said better. Here's why LeBron will not ever be better than Michael...he doesn't want to be. I have no doubt that LeBron wants to win championships, Michael was consumed by it. I think LeBron wants to be known as the best player in the league, Michael was obsessed with it. LeBron has improved slightly since entering the league, Michael improved nearly every single year until the time he retired the second time with the Bulls. Michael would kick your ass on the court, telling you all about it while he did it, but he rarely ever pounded his chest, or winked at his bench, or anything in the "hey look at me" vein of LeBron. LeBron will do that crap in the first quarter of a meaningless game in December to get people to notice him. Michael never did that crap because he already KNEW you were watching him.
I'm not sure what Pip's motivation was. I'm not sure if he actually believes what he said, or if he was trying to get his name out there and stir controversy. At the end of the day I can't condemn him too much because what he said is just so patently ridiculous. I can tell you, for a guy who played 10+ seasons with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen must'a forgot. I don't even think it should be a question of loyalty, I don't think Pippen owes Jordan anything, but for a guy who witnessed every single day the competitive fire that burned with MJ, I have absolutely no idea what he must be thinking to utter something so absurd. As a former Pip lover, I'm going to choose to believe he was talking about pure physical gifts, and the potential that exists within LeBron. This much I can promise you though, if tomorrow both Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen showed up at some random YMCA in Chicago for a game of pick-up hoops, Jordan would make sure that he and Pip got put on different teams. Then, he would proceed to crucify Pip and his team in a way that would make bystanders beg for mercy for Pippen. I'm not one of those guys that says there will never be anyone as good as or better than Michael, I mean Jordan happened, so why can't someone better happen at some point in history? However, I can tell you, there is nobody currently in college or pro basketball that is even close to ascending to those heights, and personally I don't think I'll see it in my lifetime. Hopefully my kids will though.
No comments:
Post a Comment